Blue Jays reliever is interested in a potential starting role.
Nate Pearson, a right-hander, has been working out of the Blue Jays’ bullpen in recent years but would like another shot to show himself in a starting role, as reported by Shi Davidi on Sportsnet.
Pearson, now 27, originally appeared to be a key member of the Toronto rotation. He was the club’s first-round choice in 2017, coming in 28th overall, and has since established himself as one of the league’s top talents. Pearson’s impressive performance in the minors earned him a spot on Baseball America’s top-100 list for five consecutive years beginning in 2018, reaching sixth overall in 2020.
However, as Pearson himself stated in the passage above, his health got in the way. He made his major league debut in the truncated 2020 season, but due to a flexor issue, he only appeared in five games, including one in the playoffs. In 2021, he battled a right groin strain on and off throughout the season and struggled on the mound. He spent the majority of his time on either the IL or an optional assignment. He only pitched 15 big league innings, with a 16.9% walk rate, before having hernia surgery in November of that year. In 2022, mononucleosis and a lat strain hampered him to 15 1/3 minor league innings and no major league innings.
Since then, he’s been able to avoid health issues while remaining in a relief position. Last year, he pitched 42 2/3 innings in the majors and another 20 2/3 in Triple-A. The major league work was not particularly outstanding, with a 4.85 earned run average during that span, but a healthy season was a success in and of itself after so much missed time.
In 2024, he has been healthy again, with his ERA remaining quite stable despite significant improvement in his underlying metrics. He has a 4.71 ERA through 36 1/3 innings this season, which is just slightly better than last year’s. However, his strikeout percentage has increased to 29%, up from 23.6% last year, while his walk rate has decreased from 9.9% to 8.6%. This has not resulted in significant improvements in run prevention, but luck may play a role. His home run-to-flyball ratio has increased from 11.7% to 15%, while his batting average on balls in play has risen from.261 to.344. ERA estimators like his 4.05 FIP and his 3.09 SIERA imply he may be enjoying a stronger season than a cursory look at the ERA would indicate.
Now that he’s been healthy for over two years and is producing well, a return to the starting lineup is a possibility. This year, Davidi and Pearson have brought up players like as Garrett Crochet of the White Sox, Reynaldo López of Atlanta, and Jordan Hicks, a former Blue Jay, with the Giants.
While the bullpen-to-rotation road has seen success stories with players like Seth Lugo and Jeffrey Springs, it is not always effective. MLBTR’s Steve Adams analyzed this year’s crop in May and July, identifying Crochet and López as standouts, while A.J. Puk fell on the opposite end of the scale. Puk got roughed up in four starts at the start of the season before being placed on the injured list, and the Marlins elected to return him to the bullpen following his IL stint.
Pearson’s ability to pull it off remains to be seen, but it’s natural that he wants to try. Many pitchers are shifted from starting duties to the bullpen not by choice, but by necessity, such as being squeezed out by other pitchers or having health issues, yet they may still want to return. Aside from the obvious desire to excel in a rotation role, there is also a financial incentive, since starters are typically paid more than relievers.
Despite Pearson’s health concerns, the Jays have had a strong rotation with players like as José Berríos, Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Yusei Kikuchi, Yariel Rodríguez, Alek Manoah, Ross Stripling, and Hyun Jin Ryu.
The top five people on that list make up the present rotation, but this will most likely alter. Kikuchi, an upcoming free agency, is expected to be traded before July 30, as the Jays fall behind in the American League wild-card race, making rental players available. Bassitt and Gausman have also been mentioned as trade candidates, but Bassitt has another year left on his deal and Gausman has two, making them less likely than Kikuchi to be traded.
Deadline trades might bring in more pitchers, changing the equation, but there may be a rotation opening for Pearson to exploit. Davidi said that Ricky Tiedemann and Adam Macko, the club’s top pitching prospects, are now dealing with injuries and unclear futures. Manoah underwent Tommy John surgery in June and will be gone until late 2025 at the most. That could boost the club’s readiness to give Pearson a go, but it appears that they are already receptive to it. According to Davidi, the Jays have “bounced around” the idea of stretching out Pearson this season as injuries have reduced their depth.
Walker also mentioned that the “door is always open.”
It’s not surprising that the Jays would be amenable to Pearson’s move. The bullpen has also been struck by injuries this year, and if Pearson becomes a starter, it will lose one more member. However, competent relievers are often simpler to find than trustworthy starters, so it’s a compromise most organizations would be fine with. That is especially true considering Pearson’s financial situation.
He had three years and five days of service at the beginning of this year. He was briefly optioned in April then reinstated four days later after Chad Green was hurt. A baseball season lasts 187 days, but a player must spend 172 days on the active roster or IL to receive a full service year, which means Pearson is on track to complete the season at 4.005 despite the brief option time.
He’s only making $800K this year, just above the $740K league minimum, since injuries have limited his on-field performance in recent seasons. He’s set for two more arbitration raises before entering free agency ahead of his age-30 season, unless he’s optioned to the minors again for an extended length of time.
His position, health, and level of accomplishment will all influence how much he makes in arbitration and free agency. If he can stick with Crochet, the best-case scenario is that he will be in a rotation role for the next two years, enhancing his earning potential and value to the Blue Jays. If the team is able to return to contention in the next seasons, he could play an important role. If not, he may become a sought-after trade chip, as Crochet is today. That’s a lot of ifs, but it’ll be an interesting situation to watch as the Jays finish out the season and plan for 2025 and beyond.
