Jannik Sinner won Italy’s first global No. 1 earlier this year, and he now hopes to win the famous year-end rankings reward.
Sinner’s position as world number one was not jeopardized by his quarter-final loss to Daniil Medvedev at Wimbledon, as he had a comfortable lead in the ATP Rankings after a successful start to 2024 that included victories at the Australian Open, Rotterdam Open, and Miami Open.
So while Carlos Alcaraz may appear to be the best player in the men’s game right now after his back-to-back wins at the French Open and Wimbledon, Sinner still holds a commanding rankings lead over Alcaraz.
In fact, Novak Djokovic is Sinner’s closest rival in the rankings right now as the Serbian is 1,100 points behind Sinner in the rankings.
Alcaraz is 1,440 points behind Sinner in the race to be world No 1 and it may be hard for either of the chasing duo to catch the Italian if he shines at next month’s US Open.
Sinner was knocked out in the last 16 in New York last year by Alexander Zverev, which means he will be defending just 180 ranking points from that event this year.
After admitting he learned so much from that match against Zverev, Sinner has suggested he has taken his career to the next level since then.
He went on a winning run after his disappointment in New York last year, sweeping up titles in Beijing and Vienna, before reaching the finals of the ATP Finals in Turin.
Sinner then guided Italy to Davis Cup glory in Malaga – beating Djokovic along the way – to round off 2023.
He carried that form in 2024 and now looks well-placed to seal the world No 1 ranking if he performs to expectation on US hardcourts over the next few weeks.
Sinner has plenty of points to defend in the next ATP 1000 in Canada as he won that tournament last year, beating Alex de Minaur in the final.
He then has a chance to gain plenty of points in Cincinnati, where he lost in the last-32 against Serbia’s Dusan Lajovic last year.
If he were to reach the latter stages of the US Open, he would also give his rankings total a boost and he needs to build up a lead in the rankings as he has plenty of points to defend after the New York major thanks to his 2023 success in Beijing, Vienna and at the ATP Finals.
Djokovic may well be out of the running to seal another year-end No 1 ranking, as the Serbian is unlikely to play in enough tournaments to compete with Alcaraz and Sinner for the top spot.
He will play at the Olympic Games and may well play in the Cincinnati Masters after, where he will be the defending champion after his thrilling win against Alcaraz in last year’s final.
Djokovic would need to play in plenty of tournaments after the US Open to have a chance to challenge for the year-end No 1 ranking, but he has made it clear that he doesn’t want to be on the road as much as his younger rivals at this stage of his career.
As for Alcaraz, winning the US Open would give him his best chance to oust Sinner from the top of the rankings and if the Spaniard can win his third Grand Slam of the year in New York, he would deserve the year-end No 1 title.
Alcaraz admits the indoor swing on the ATP Tour after the US Open is not his strongest suit, but he could add an extra 1,280 ranking points to his total if he wins another major in New York.
Sinner was the form player in the first half of 2024 and now Alcaraz has moved through the gears to take a lead.
The battle for the year-end ATP No 1 ranking looks set to be a thriller, with the two young guns at the top of the men’s game shooting it out for the big prize.
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