2023 Fourth Round pick Kristian Campbell has continued to stay scorching hot in Portland.
Late in 2022, when Chaim Bloom was infamously accused of not “picking a lane” after the first of two laneless trade deadlines, the part that frustrated me most was that while selling off key pieces to the major league team, Bloom still couldn’t find a way to get under the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT). J.D. Martinez and Nathan Eovaldi were still in Boston, the Red Sox were a tick above the CBT and, as a result, were hit with significant penalties in a season in which they were not remotely “going for it.
” While I assume very few of our readers were concerned about the monetary penalties that John Henry received, it was the draft pick compensation for departing free agents that really stung. Xander Bogaerts packed his bags and went to San Diego, followed by Nathan Eovaldi who went to Texas and quickly got himself a World Series ring.
Instead of receiving two picks at the end of the second round (between picks 60 and 70) for the departing players, the Red Sox were compensated with picks 132 and 133 at the end of the fourth round in the 2023 draft.
With pick #132, Bloom & Co. slightly bailed themselves out by selecting Kristian Campbell out of Georgia Tech. As a college bat at age 22, Campbell’s breakout at high-A this spring was impressive but not a major statement in terms of age-to-level. In 40 games, he slashed .306/.418/.558, with 13 doubles, 8 home runs, 25 RBI, and 29 runs scored. With a 14.7/26.6 BB:K% and improving hard-hit data, it was a matter of time before he got the call to Portland for the next challenge.
It is that hard-hit data that is most interesting for Campbell, which is not only a matter of getting stronger but also an approach change. Entering the draft, Baseball America’s report focused on his “strong walk to strikeout rate and elite contact rate,” with little mention of power potential. However, as Alex Speier noted recently, Campbell focused on hitting the ball back up the middle when he was in college and is now focused on getting to his power. In the piece, Campbell said:
The swing change, which gives Campbell more torque in his lower half, has fueled his 107 mph 90th-percentile Exit Velocity. For comparison, the 90th percentile EV for the average Major Leaguer is 103.5 mph. Having not hit a ball harder than 109 mph in college, Campbell has hit numerous balls over 110 mph this season, including a 113 mph home run that went 450 feet at Greenville in early May.
So, what’s the catch here? Campbell is hitting the ball as hard as almost anyone in the minors to the point that the top prospect in the system is calling him Barry Bonds, he doesn’t chase, he has plus speed, he’s making improvements at every level, and he has emerging power. My only thoughts are that he seemingly has sold out for power and that could affect his contact percentages at the highest levels (Triple-A, MLB) as pitching gets even tougher. Campbell also has an unorthodox swing and the couple of scouts that I’ve discussed this with have concerns about that swing while also acknowledging that he’s just “made it work” to this point, and has found a happy medium to balance contact and power. Defensively, Campbell has played 28 games at second base and 19 games in center field on the season, making just two errors and was graded by Baseball America as a 45 field (50 arm).
We wish a Happy 22nd Birthday to Kristian Campbell today, and hope to see him continue your ascent through the Red Sox system alongside the Big Three. Campbell could be the Dennis Johnson to go with Bird, Parish, McHale. It remains to be seen who lines up with the other three.
While we’re talking about Hard Hit Data, a few other thoughts. With a Rotowire subscription, you can access their Minor League Batted Ball data page. Sports Info Solutions to categorize Hard, Medium, and Soft contact in Minor League Baseball. It’s not perfect and we plebeians struggle to get our hands on the elusive exit velocities for all minor leaguers but at least it’s something. Filtering to 200+ plate appearances, the Red Sox have three of the top eight, and four of the top 21 in minor league baseball for Hard Hit %.
With two of those players atop the Red Sox prospects lists and two not, the most glaring difference is with making contact.
Hickey dropped from 17th to 27th in the most recent Sox Prospects rankings update, and Kavadas dropped out of the top-60 altogether. For what it’s worth, Marcelo Mayer has a 32.8 Hard Hit% on the season and a 78.2 Contact%. Kyle Teel has a 22.1 Hard Hit% and a 71.3 Contact%. Something makes me think he’ll find his way into the league anyway with his .880 OPS and elite pop times defensively. It remains to be seen if Kristian Campbell will be along for the ride as the Big Three (Four?) move to Worcester and someday Boston.
